The US government plans to alter auto emissions standards, forcing automakers to significantly increase electric vehicle sales. By 2032, roughly two-thirds of all new cars sold in America must be electric.
According to Moody’s industry analyst Matthias Heck, without these requirements, electric vehicles would have achieved this market share after 2035. He stated that the EPA’s goals are achievable but will require substantial investment. Currently, this proposal remains just that—a proposal, and it might undergo further changes before becoming final, as pointed out by Heck.
The US Government’s Plan to Increase Electric Vehicle Sales is Difficult, But it Can be Achieved – Matthias Heck
In the next decade, significant changes are expected, encompassing improvements in charging infrastructure and electric vehicles. Consumers will increasingly favor electric vehicles due to advancements in battery technology and lower prices. Government incentives, such as those provided by the new Inflation Reduction Act, will also contribute to this shift.
Chris Harto, a policy analyst for transportation and energy at Consumer Reports, emphasized the importance of recognizing that electric vehicles will undergo significant changes in nearly a decade. He explained that while the market share of EVs is expected to reach two-thirds, it won’t result in an overnight inundation of America’s roads with EVs. According to him, 80% of the vehicles on the road in 2032 will still be powered by gasoline, but the process of shopping for a new vehicle will be altered.
Electric Cars Will be Cheaper Than Other Cars – Harto
Harto added, “We’re discussing achieving cost parity, so electric vehicles will be priced the same as or even cheaper than gasoline-powered cars.
Simultaneously, there will be improvements in driving ranges, making it easier and more accessible to use fast charging, and owners will experience significantly lower operating costs, according to Harto. Moody’s Heck anticipated that upcoming EV batteries in the next few years will offer a 30% increase in range and 30% faster recharge times.
Additionally, when you factor in enhanced charging networks, which can also be anticipated in that period, electric cars will easily attract consumers who are simply seeking the best vehicle at an affordable price, as stated by Harto.
Furthermore, by 2032, a greater variety of electric vehicle models will be on the market. At present, there are “EV equivalents” for approximately 40% of the gasoline vehicle models accessible to American consumers, as stated by Elizabeth Krear, Vice President of the electric vehicle practice at JD Power. The current electric vehicle market share stands at 8.5%.
Although Krear didn’t specifically address the likelihood of EVs constituting two-thirds of the US auto market by 2032, she anticipates that by 2026, which is only three years away, there will be “EV equivalents” for 75% of the vehicles sought by Americans, and market share will have already tripled to 27%. In California, where EVs are more popular and a wider selection of models is available, the EV market share is projected to reach the two-thirds mark before 2032.
California’s Drive Towards 2035: Over 80% Plug-In Vehicle Market Share
California intends to permit only fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales by 2035, and it’s progressing toward this objective, as confirmed by Corey Cantor, an analyst at Bloomberg NEF. Consequently, California is expected to achieve an over 80% market share for plug-in vehicles, encompassing plug-in hybrids, by 2032. Given its substantial size, California plays a significant role in the broader US vehicle market.
California’s impact on the entire nation is accelerating the timeline by potentially a year,” he noted.
Hitting the two-thirds EV market share by 2032 isn’t guaranteed, according to Cantor, but it appears achievable.
Ivan Drury, an industry analyst at Edmunds.com, added that the growing participation of automakers in the EV market will be beneficial. Many car buyers tend to have strong brand loyalty.